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It is nearly impossible to preempt Paris like attacks. The extent of surveillance necessary to try and achieve this would most likely to go against basic democratic principles. However, targeted surveillance can yield results, as the recent raid in the Belgian town Verviers showed writes Rajiv Prakash Saxena, Ex-Deputy Director General, NIC
Seven attacks in just 40 minutes from 9.20 pm to 9.53 pm at Paris, shook the whole nation and its President had to be whisked out and evacuated from the Stade de France stadium, where a friendly match between French and German team was in progress. In between the 1st half of the soccer game, two suicide blasts took place within a time frame of 10 minutes, which killed a passerby and both terrorists exploded themselves in quick succession. The explosive vests were craftily designed by the perpetrators of this dastardly act. Imagine the destruction had both terrorists had entered the Stadia. Last attack also took place at the stadia in which another terrorist exploded itself, which implied accomplish was roaming in the vicinity of the stadia. In between a pizzeria, 2 bars, Cambodian restaurant and a theatre was attacked where a live band was playing. A total of 129 innocent citizens were killed, over 360 citizens injured, out of which over 100 citizens are critically injured. All 7 terrorists were killed, out of which 6 exploded themselves and one of them was killed by the police at the theater. In this attack all seven terrorists wanted to die early as compared to the Mumbai attack, where terrorists were remotely controlled and live telecast of the attack by our media brought TRPs to the channels but gave useful hints to the remote controllers to direct the firepower. The Mumbai terrorists wanted to ‘fight till finish’ in the 26/11 Mumbai attack. This was a heinous attack on the civilisation and we must hang our heads in shame, despair and national grief and mourning.
Immediately after being rescued from the stadia, the President Hollande declared national emergency, only the 2nd time since the World War II, when German airplanes used to bomb Paris and create havoc. “All city facilities are closed today”, Paris city hall informed Parisians. The list comprises schools, museums, libraries, sport halls, swimming pools, tennis courts, food markets and district town halls. Only civil registration offices to record marriages will be kept open. French authorities closed the international icon Eiffel Tower, Louvre Museum and other top tourist attraction until further orders. France has sealed all its borders and it has imposed a curfew in Paris, but all French airports remain open and trains are running. As a precautionary measure Irish Rock band U2 also called off a Paris concert, which was planned for Saturday, the 14th November. Hotels had closed their gates immediately and in order to help the unsheltered Parisian residents used the hashtag #PorteOuverte, which translates to ‘open door’, Twitter to offer shelter to those stranded in the city after the attack. A large number of office goers living nearby in France and working at Geneva, will be affected.
The world has now seen the full blown effect of ISIS, which is the undisputed number one terror outfit controlling area bigger than the United Kingdom. The strength of ISIS is multiplying faster than it is being destroyed by the American drones and Russian fighters. In a message to it followers around the world, IS Chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi said in May that IS cadres should fight wherever they are. “There is no excuse for a Muslim not to migrate to IS. Joining is a duty of every Muslim,” he said. This attack seems to be in support of this call by him. Few analysts attribute this attack as the aftermath of the drone killing of Jihadi John. The tremors of this attack were felt in the UK, which after evaluation termed the scenario of threat perception as severe. Police evacuated the North terminal at the Britain’s 2nd busiest airport, Gatwik, 30 miles from London, after what the authorities described as ‘suspicious action at the airport. France has the largest Muslim population in Europe. IS also has around 1000 to 1500 French speaking fighters. IS had warned in a video message that revenge will be taken and they had been successful. The Jihadis entered the country along with thousands of refugee from Syria and has infiltrated the civil population. More than 4,64,000 migrants have crossed into Europe by sea in the 1st nine months of the the year 2015. Only around half of them are actually Syrrians; the others are from Eritrea, Darfur, Afghanistan, Pakistan, even Nigeria.
Bitter confrontation has been going on in the France regarding Burqa and Hizab in the learning institutes of the country. This is not the 1st time IS has leashed its ugly terror fangs. They have attacked at Beirut, targeted Russian jet in Egypt recently, Ankara, Baghdad (Iraq), Sana’a (Yemen), Bangladesh, Suruc in the Kurdish region of Turkey, on a plain near the Syrian border 46 kilometres (29 miles) south – west of the city of Urfa, Tunis (Tunisia), Kuwait City, Benghazi (Libya), Charlie Hebdo (Paris) and Sydney (Australia) in the last one year. The recent scale of the attack must have been planned very meticulously by using ‘foot soldiers’ and ‘sleeper cells’ and silent sympathisers of IS by providing recce and logistic support over a time frame not less than minimum 12 months. The Syrian refugee issue would have furthered its implementation as dedicated radicalised minds would have provided the much needed aggressive impetus toward the end objective. The planning must have been done, without using any social media, internet, sms, chats and twitter as French companies are the master of ‘listening equipment in the phones’ and listening devices in the sky to eavesdrop the chatter in different networks. The team must be getting sincere advise from cyber hackers, underground web mafia and security experts. Even precautions like not speaking in ‘open area’ must have been taken very sincerely.
It is nearly impossible to preempt such attacks. The extent of surveillance necessary to try and achieve this would most likely go against basic democratic principles. However, targeted surveillance can yield results, as the recent raid in the Belgian town Verviers showed. In Luxembourg, the intelligence service can only place a terror suspect under surveillance if ordered by the prosecution to do so. There has to be concrete evidence of a crime for the prosecutor’s office to issue such an order. Between 3,000 and 5,000 foreign fighters from Europe are estimated to stand with ISIS in Syria. Should there be serious defeats, leading to disillusionment and frustration, questions necessarily arise over what to do with these battle – tested fighters, should they wish return to their home country. It can be difficult to extract a radical individual from the extremist milieu. Intelligence services, however, cannot do this work alone. A multi – disciplinary team of social workers, psychologists and other carers is needed to offer new perspectives and help disengange the person in question from their environment. Such procedures are time, labour and cost – heavy. In Germany, an organisation called “Exit” offers similar services for people wishing to leave the neo – Nazi and extreme right – wing scene.
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The attack created a ripple effect in the countries whose boundaries France shares with it. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy called an emergency meeting of Spain’s National Security Council in response to the attacks. The investigation into the attack spread to Belgium on Saturday where police, investigates the car, which brought the terrorists in the Paris. Special vigil has started at the Italian border as large number of Africans enters France through Italy every year. NATO countries also discussed this issue in detail. Two of Trudeau’s biggest plans would face new questions: his intent to withdraw CF – 18 fighters from action over Iraq and Syria and his plan to bring 25,000 Syrian refugees to Canada by the New Year.
There will be global repercussions of this attack. France operates under the Schengen Agreement, which consists of a common border and immigration policy consisting of 26 nations, the majority of which are European Union members. The Schengen Agreement took effect in 1995 and abolished the EU’s internal borders, enabling passport – free movement across the bloc. Only six EU member states — Britain, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Ireland and Romania — fall outside the Schengen zone. Under the Schengen rules, signatories are allowed to reinstate internal border controls for 10 days for necessary “public policy or national security” reasons. If the problem persists, the controls can be maintained for “renewable periods” of up to 20 days and a maximum of two months. A 2013 EU regulation specified that the controls, “should remain an exception and should only be effected as a measure of last resort, for a strictly limited scope and period of time.” France will use this clause and impose movement restrictions within EU.
The economic gap between the Muslims and the Christians will increase as the white youths will find difficulty in getting jobs and refuges will want better jobs and facilities. Racial fights have already erupted in many countries of the region. The Right Wing political parties will encash this scenario to their advantage and the rise of liberals and conservative will find it difficult to win over voters. Right wing in France has already started protesting in Paris.
The social unrest in Europe is growing at an alarming rate. As per BBC surveys there has been a rise of Muslim inmates in England. Why has there been a surge in the number of Muslim prisoners? In 2002, 5,502 inmates in England and Wales said they were Muslim. Three years later, the number had risen to 7,246 and almost a decade on, by December 2014, it had reached 12,225. Indeed, inmate numbers have risen from an average of 70,778 in 2002 to 84,691 last December, 2014. But that 20% increase in the jail population has been outstripped by the rise in Muslim inmates – up 122%. One possible explanation for the rise is that there are now more Muslims in the general population. In the 2001 census, 3% of people in England and Wales said they were Muslim – 1.55 million. By 2011, that had gone up to 4.8 % – 2.7 million people – so you’d expect the numbers in prison to go up too. France Muslim inmate population is around 70%, which is very high by any standard. This will increase the social harmony and will disturb the common bondage of the society.
Europe will close down all its borders and will reduce the intake of refugees in their region on selective basis and even if they take the refugees, the conversion will take place at the immigration counters itself at the entry points. This also happened during the recent crisis.
The economy is not picking up in Europe. The importance of England and France in the Global Hall of fame is reducing considerably even though they are the permanent members of the UNSC. The education is becoming expensive, research grants are diminishing and middle class is feeling the blunt of the stunted growth. Health care and social security is on decline. With global united voices rising the safe heavens like Switzerland will have less of wealth transmission into their vaults.
India has already been affected by the 26/11 attack from foreign state actors and this war continued for over 40 long hours. The country has faced such shrapnel, attacks and wound from Jihadi forces since the year 1993, Mumbai attacks. The threat perception of Indian PM is very high and during the Group of 20 leaders meeting in Turkey, help of MI 15 and Mossad is also being taken to protect him.
Europe is facing its worst crisis since the end of the World War. It needs greater cohesion, partnership and intelligence sharing to tide over the ISIS war.
The views expressed by author is personal.
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